Irish election exit poll predicts even split between three main parties

An exit poll in Ireland suggests a dead heat between Sinn Féin and the taoiseach’s party Fine Gael in the general election, with Fianna Fáil only slightly behind.

It is the first real indication of how Ireland voted after three weeks of canvassing in the snap election called by Simon Harris.

The poll put Sinn Féin, which went into the election as the third most popular party, in first place with 21.1% share of the vote followed by Harris’s party at 21%, slightly edging Fianna Fáil, the leader in the race in the latest polls this week, at 19.5%.

The leftist party, led by Mary Lou McDonald will be heartened by the suggestion it has slightly shaded the country’s two main political bodies given it went into the campaign battered by a series of scandals and decline in popularity in its core base over its migration policy.

Sinn Féin’s director of elections, Matt Carthy, hailed his party’s performance.
He said it marked a significant turnaround from the party’s disappointing showing in June’s local and European elections.

“When you consider where we would have been coming out of the local and European elections, I have to say it’s a phenomenal result,” Mr Carthy told RTE.

He added: “We do recall that in 2020 the exit poll actually undershot Sinn Fein to the tune of 2%-plus. So if that was to transpire tomorrow morning, there is every chance that Sinn Fein will emerge from these elections as the largest political party.”
Mr Carthy would not be drawn on what the exit poll might mean for coalition formation.
“This is a hugely positive exit poll but the real votes will be counted tomorrow, so let’s see where they land,” he said.

Harris appears to have fared slightly better than polls this week which projected a six point drop in vote share from 25% at the outset of the three week campaign to 19%.

The survey of around 5,000 voters who had cast their ballot during the day was carried out by Ipsos MRBI for RTÉ, The Irish Times, TG4 and Trinity College Dublin. It comes with two strong health warnings – it reflects first preference votes only and with a margin of error.

According to the poll, the first vote preferences split almost evenly with Fianna Fáil maintaining the slight edge it commanded at the end of the three-week campaign, Sinn Féin and Fine Gael.

The fourth largest group is predicted to be independents at 12.7% of the share, far below the projections of close to 20% in some earlier polls.

Unlike the UK, with the first candidate past the post winning the election, Irish results are based on a propotional representation system which makes the outcome more difficult to predict and the result longer to emerge.

Voters rank candidates with second preferences going to those candidates as long as they are still in the race and have not already been elected or eliminated.

Counting in Friday’s ballot will not begin until 9am on Saturday, with close-to-final results expected by the end of Sunday.

Tallies by the parties, which operate a parallel informal counting operation in all 43 constituencies, are expected to reveal their projections of the election results at around lunchtime on Saturday.

Unless there is an outright majority for one party, which is highly improbable, it could be weeks before a government is formed as parties negotiate and horse-trade over the makeup of a new coalition government.

A surge in popularity for independent candidates is expected, partly because so many Fine Gael candidates are new – 18 of the 33 outgoing Teachta Dálas (TDs) did not stand for re-election. Others are hoping to make electoral gains on the back of anti-immigration policies. But an Irish Times poll earlier this week showed the status quo was most popular.

It found that the country’s preference was a second term for a partnership between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil – with or without their third partner, the Green party.

The partnership took four months to form after the last election in 2020, when Sinn Féin celebrated its best ever general election, securing 37 seats in the Dáil, one behind Fianna Fáil and two more than Fine Gael.

When casting their votes, the leaders predicted a close call. Harris said he expected a “fascinating couple of days” with the count.

He said the makeup and stability of the next government could be decided by where transfer votes go. Fine Gael and Sinn Féin have asked voters to give their second preference vote to the same party or similar parties to swell their chances of leading a stable coalition.

The Dáil consists of 174 seats with around 88 needed for a clear majority. However, a coalition is more probable than a majority government, with no party expected to get more than 35-40 seats.

Fine Gael went into the polls with Harris battered by campaign slip-ups including an awkward encounter with a disability care worker.

Emphasis on the personality and energy of the taoiseach was a strategy deployed to help win party support where no recognisable candidate was running, with so many TDs standing down.

Meanwhile the leader of the Social Democrat party announced the birth of a baby daughter on the day of the election.

Holly Cairns, who is standing for re-election in the Cork South-West constituency, posted on Instagram: “She’s here. We are completely in love with her.”

One of her followers responded: “What a day to land. Her timing is incredible.” And said: “Polling day baby. Is she getting Polly as a middle name?”

The Social Democrats are one of the smallest parties in the Dáil with six seats.